Summary
Wholesale used-vehicle prices ended 2025 essentially flat, with the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index at 205.5. Cox Automotive expects a return to more typical depreciation in 2026, with electric vehicles playing a larger role in pricing as their presence in auctions grows.
December 2025 readings
- MUVVI: 205.5, up 0.4% year over year; seasonally adjusted up 0.1% month over month.
- Non-adjusted prices: +0.5% year over year; -0.4% month over month (near seasonal norms).
- Retail used-vehicle sales: +2% for 2025 vs. 2024 (initial vAuto estimate); December sales pace down <1% year over year.
- Auction conversion rate: 56.8%, up 4.4 percentage points vs. November and 4.6 points above the recent three-year December average.
- MMR retention: 99.6%, up 60 bps year over year and 70 bps month over month, indicating market prices aligned with guidebook values.
- Three-Year-Old Index: MMR prices fell slightly more than typical, suggesting depreciation caught up to long-run averages.
2025 recap
- The index stayed above its March low of 202.6 as steady retail demand supported wholesale values.
- After early-year volatility, pricing firmed midyear and flattened into fall, finishing broadly stable.
- EV Index gains: year-over-year increases in each of the final nine months; luxury vehicles and EVs outperformed.
- Lagging segments: compact cars and trucks saw the largest year-over-year declines in December.
Segment performance
- EV Index: +2.5% year over year in December; -0.1% month over month from a 2025 high in November.
- Non-EV wholesale values: +0.4% year over year.
Supply and demand dynamics
Retail and wholesale supply remained tight in 2025 due to lower past production and fewer lease maturities, though lease turn-ins are expected to rise through 2026. Affordability concerns tempered December consumer spending, while improving auto loan rates and upcoming tax refunds are expected to support demand early in 2026.
2026 outlook
- Retail used-vehicle sales forecast: 20.3 million (down 0.7% vs. 2025).
- MUVVI projection: end 2026 up about 2%, assuming typical depreciation resumes.
- EV influence: EVs currently hold a 3.3% weighting in the index; share expected to rise as more off-lease EVs enter auctions.
- Supply: Still constrained, likely preventing sharp price declines even as depreciation normalizes.
What to watch early 2026
- Auto loan rate trends and tax refund season impacts on retail demand.
- EV volumes entering auction lanes and their growing weight in the index.
- Auction conversion and MMR retention as gauges of buyer-seller price alignment.
