Summary
- The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose to 205.4, up 1.3% month over month on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis.
- Unadjusted wholesale prices fell 0.3% month over month and were flat year over year.
- November’s gain ran counter to the typical ~0.6% decline for the month, helped by stronger retail sales, the end of the government shutdown, and lower APRs.
- Luxury and EV segments led; compact and midsize cars lagged.
Market performance
Adjusted wholesale values improved modestly in November, outperforming usual late-year patterns. The uptick followed October softness and was tied to firmer retail activity and easing financing conditions. The report also flagged potential January tailwinds from lower tax withholding that could bolster take-home pay.
Segment dynamics
- Luxury: Led market gains across cars and SUVs.
- EVs: EV Index up 2.3% m/m and 6.1% y/y, with momentum linked to policy changes including the expiration of federal EV tax credits.
- Non-EV: Index up 1.3% m/m but down 0.1% y/y.
- Compact & midsize cars: Largest year-over-year declines, continuing segment pressure.
Demand and pricing signals
- Sales conversion: Rose to 57.2%, +2.9 pp m/m and 5.2 pp above the three-year average, indicating more willing buyers at prevailing prices.
- MMR three-year-old Index: Down 1.9% in November (vs. typical -1.7%).
- MMR retention: Averaged 98.9%, down 0.1 pp m/m and 50 bps y/y, hinting at slightly weaker alignment between sale prices and MMR values than last year.
Supply conditions
Wholesale days’ supply rose to 30.1 days, up 2.2 days from October and 1.3 days y/y. This is slightly tighter than the historical November average (~32 days) and reflects typical seasonal patterns as auction calendars shorten and holiday schedules slow activity.
Rental segment
Rental vehicle prices declined 4.3% m/m and 3.3% y/y, while average mileage fell 9.1%, consistent with late-year de-fleeting and normal fleet-cycle adjustments. An influx of relatively fresh rental units can pressure pricing in compact and midsize classes.
Outlook
Overall, the market looked more like pre-pandemic normal, with a seasonal supply build and measured demand. Whether luxury and EVs continue to outpace the market, and whether compact/midsize segments can recover, will hinge on December sales, dealer inventory strategies, and new-vehicle deliveries. Potential January income tailwinds could support retail demand and stabilize wholesale trends.
