Mid-month snapshot of wholesale used-vehicle pricing
Wholesale used-vehicle prices slipped slightly on a seasonally adjusted basis in early February but rose year over year, reflecting firming demand ahead of the spring selling season. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) registered 210.0 for the first half of the month, down 0.2% from January (seasonally adjusted) and up 2.9% year over year. Unadjusted prices increased 1.9% from January and were 3.1% higher than a year earlier.
Key metrics (first half of February 2026)
- MUVVI: 210.0 (SA: -0.2% m/m; +2.9% y/y). Unadjusted: +1.9% m/m; +3.1% y/y.
- MMR (three-year-old vehicles): +1.3% in the first two weeks; average retention 100.3% (+0.3 pp y/y; +0.3 pp m/m). Depreciation ran considerably below long-term rates.
- Sales conversion: 62.5% (+~3 pp y/y; +2.4 pp m/m), indicating stronger auction throughput.
- EV Index: +1.7% y/y; +0.7% m/m. Non-EV: +2.5% y/y; -0.2% m/m.
- Wholesale supply: 27 days at January-end (flat y/y; down from 32 in December); 28 days as of Feb. 15.
What’s driving the move
- Tax refund season: the average refund is up about 11% from this time last year, and the share of returns receiving a refund is up 2 percentage points.
- Lower auto loan rates are improving buyer confidence and supporting dealer stocking.
Segment trends
Performance was uneven across segments. The luxury category led year-over-year gains and continues to support aggregate growth, while traditional passenger cars posted the largest declines.
Auction dynamics
Demand is translating in the lanes: MMR retention held above 100%, and sales conversion outpaced longer-term norms. These indicators suggest buyers are willing to meet sellers’ pricing and that inventory is being absorbed efficiently.
Seasonality and context
- Historically, seasonally adjusted wholesale values fall about 0.2% over the full month of February, while non-adjusted prices rise about 0.9% on average.
- The current mid-month figures are a checkpoint, not the official month-end reading. The next full MUVVI report is scheduled for Friday, March 6, 2026.
- MUVVI is a benchmark for tracking U.S. wholesale used-vehicle prices. It was rebased in January 2023 to set January 1997 = 100; monthly and yearly percent changes since January 2015 remain identical under the rebased series.
Bottom line
Seasonal tailwinds, including larger tax refunds and easing loan rates, are bolstering early-spring demand. With luxury vehicles leading gains, EV values stabilizing, and core auction metrics (retention and conversion) running hot, wholesale values appear well-supported even as the seasonally adjusted index edged modestly lower month over month.
