Summary
Wholesale used-vehicle values softened slightly month over month after seasonal adjustment while year-over-year gains strengthened, signaling an early start to the spring selling season. On a non-adjusted basis, prices rose faster than typical February norms.
Key metrics (mid-February 2026)
- Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (seasonally adjusted): 210.0 (-0.2% m/m), +2.9% y/y.
- Non-adjusted wholesale prices: +1.9% vs. January; +3.1% vs. mid-February 2025.
- Historical February patterns: SA typically -0.2% for the month; non-adjusted typically +0.9%.
- MMR (3-year-old vehicles): +1.3% in the month’s first half.
- MMR retention: 100.3%, up 0.3 pp from both a year ago and January.
- Sales conversion: 62.5%, up 2.7 pp y/y and 2.4 pp vs. January.
- EV Index: +1.7% y/y and +0.7% m/m; Non-EV: +2.5% y/y and -0.2% m/m (SA).
- Wholesale supply: 27 days at end of January; 28 days as of Feb. 15.
Demand drivers and auction dynamics
- Tax season support: average refunds up roughly 11% y/y; share of returns with refunds up 2 pp, boosting near-term demand.
- Financing tailwinds: lower auto loan rates supporting buyer confidence.
- Dealer behavior: stocking up ahead of anticipated strong spring; high conversion indicates inventory is being absorbed.
Segment performance
- Luxury vehicles continued to lead annual gains.
- Passenger cars showed the largest declines among major segments, partially offsetting luxury strength.
- EV values have firmed after earlier incentive-related softness; non-EV values remain elevated despite slight m/m cooling (SA).
Supply and outlook
Supply tightened to start the year but ticked higher to 28 days in mid-February. Elevated retention and conversion suggest solid demand is meeting the additional inventory. With stronger refunds and improved borrowing conditions, wholesale values should find sustained support into the spring, though conditions remain sensitive to supply shifts.
Methodology and notes
- The index tracks U.S. wholesale used-vehicle prices, adjusting for mix and mileage.
- Rebased in 2023: baseline shifted to January 1997 = 100; percent changes since January 2015 are unchanged.
- Mid-month figures are checkpoints and not official measures; they should not be compared to the final monthly reading.
- Official February index and full details are scheduled for release on Friday, March 6, 2026.
