January 2026 snapshot
The U.S. used-vehicle market started 2026 with its strongest January demand in five years, per CarGurus data shared by NIADA. Buyer interest accelerated even as inventory broadly rebuilt and asking prices edged higher.
Key metrics
- Demand Index: up 7.2% year over year and 4% month over month.
- Availability Index: up 5.2% versus the start of 2025; roughly 0.3% below December’s level, consistent with a steady normalization rather than a surge.
- Average listing price: $27,800 in January, up from $27,400 a year earlier.
Market dynamics
- Used supply is gradually normalizing toward pre-pandemic patterns, not spiking.
- New-vehicle inventory recovered faster after the chip shortage; the used pipeline lagged due to earlier weak new-vehicle sales that limited late-model trade-ins and lease returns.
- Dealers appear to be positioning for the spring selling and tax-refund season by modestly increasing stock.
Pricing and seasonal outlook
List prices typically firm from February through May as tax refunds reach consumers. CarGurus expects that seasonal rise to continue; if sales outpace inventory growth, price gains could exceed last year’s roughly 5% increase from January to May. Larger refunds tied to policy changes could add further demand.
Implications for independent dealers
- January’s elevated demand may signal a competitive run-up to spring; stocking discipline remains important.
- Monitor late-model availability closely, as improving flow should support healthier volumes without tipping into excess.
- Watch pricing risk if demand accelerates faster than inventory rebuilds.
What to watch next
Upcoming monthly readings from CarGurus will show whether January’s momentum carries through the quarter and how pricing responds as refunds arrive.
