Key takeaways
Buyer traffic slowed to open February while inventory stayed roughly flat, lifting days’ supply even as prices edged lower. Cox Automotive characterizes the pullback as seasonal and demand-driven, not an inventory glut.
Headline metrics (start of February)
- 30-day sales pace: 845,216 units (−22% vs. December; −4% vs. January 2025)
- Total inventory: 2.77 million vehicles (as of Jan. 30), roughly unchanged
- National days’ supply: 98 (up from 76 in December)
- Average listing price: $49,248 (−2.6% month over month; +1.4% year over year)
Context and drivers
- Severe winter weather and typical January seasonality dampened showroom traffic.
- Rising days’ supply reflects slower sales velocity, not swelling inventories; most brand stocks were flat to modestly changed in January.
- Year over year, inventory volume and days’ supply are lower, indicating leaner stock than last winter.
Brand-level highlights
- Toyota: Sales pace ~−25% vs. December; days’ supply rose from low-30s to low-40s; remains among the more balanced operators.
- Nissan: −12%; days’ supply from mid-90s to >110.
- Honda: −17%; days’ supply from upper-40s to mid-60s.
- Hyundai: ~−23%; days’ supply moved into triple digits.
- Kia: ~−11%; days’ supply in low 100s.
- Chevrolet: ~−25%; days’ supply from upper-60s to mid-80s.
- Ford: ~−30%; days’ supply from mid-90s to well above 130.
Model-level trends
- Core nameplates (Toyota Camry/Corolla/Highlander; Honda Accord/CR-V; Nissan Altima; Ford F-Series) saw sales pace declines of ~20%–30% vs. December.
- Days’ supply for these models increased by ~15–40 days.
- F-Series shifted from mid-90-day range to triple digits; pickups typically hold larger inventories due to steady demand and complex trim mixes.
- Midsize sedans/SUVs like Accord and Highlander moved from sub-60-day turns toward ~80 days’ supply.
Pricing and dealer sentiment
- Pricing eased modestly; changes reflect subtle mix shifts and selective retailer positioning, not broad discounting.
- Dealers at NADA reported quieter showrooms even where stock was well balanced.
Interpretation
The reading signals “deceleration, not deterioration.” Inventories remain below last year’s peaks, and year-over-year fundamentals are firmer, with leaner stock and more efficient turns than last winter.
Outlook
- Near-term support expected from a seasonal “spring bounce,” including tax refunds and milder late-February weather.
- If demand stays soft, higher-stock domestic full-line makers may lean on targeted incentives or pricing moves.
- Watch whether turn times retreat from January’s highs and whether the sales pace rebounds toward December levels.
Why days’ supply jumped
With inventory roughly flat at 2.77 million while the rolling 30-day sales rate fell sharply from December, days’ supply rose to 98. In December, a faster cadence (just over 1 million units on a 30-day basis) helped keep days’ supply at 76 despite similar stock—underscoring how sensitive the metric is to changes in sales velocity.
