Overview
Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) adoption is beginning to reshape dealership service and repair revenues, but the broad impact remains modest where BEVs are still a small share of workshop traffic. Markets with high BEV penetration—most notably Norway—offer an advanced look at steeper declines in routine service revenue and shifting work patterns that are forcing strategic changes in workshops.
Current impact in most markets
- Workshop mix: BEVs typically represent under 10% of dealership workshop entries.
- Aftersales profitability: Overall impact so far is “only marginally affected” (less than 10%) for franchised dealers; even smaller for independents.
- Offsetting factors: Early warranty work on new BEVs and higher loyalty to franchised dealers have cushioned declines in routine items.
- Pace of change: Adjusted mandates/timelines in the EU, UK, and US are slowing the shift in the vehicle parc.
- Independent exposure: Independents see older cars and thus have even lower BEV exposure at this stage.
Norway as an early preview
- Penetration: BEVs reached 95% of new registrations in 2025; ~30% of total parc; 79% of the 0–4-year parc.
- Warranty/recalls: Falling as technology matures.
- Routine maintenance: Thinner pipelines; dealers report ~30% fewer labor hours and ~50% less parts revenue on routine services, reflecting the loss of oil-related work.
- Shifting work: More jobs tied to suspension, drivetrains, rusting friction brakes, and tires—but not enough to offset losses.
- Bottom line: Returns from routine servicing have turned meaningfully negative.
Customer behavior shifts
- Early loyalty to franchised dealers is fading as owners grow familiar with BEVs.
- More price shopping and willingness to consider independents, similar to ICE ownership patterns.
- Some treat BEVs like appliances, risking deferred maintenance absent clear faults.
Dealer responses and strategic shifts
- Investing in crash repair and tire services where demand is growing.
- Using service plans and targeted outreach to retain customers, especially remaining ICE owners.
- Preparing for rising competitive pressure from independents.
- Accepting that the overall aftersales revenue “cake” is shrinking and its composition has changed.
Collision work dynamics
- Instant torque may be contributing to more incidents, with higher repair costs and more total losses.
- Cost drivers include expensive parts, occasional battery damage, and longer repair times.
- While outside routine maintenance, collision trends are increasingly central to workshop strategy.
Why the impact lags elsewhere
- Parc turnover takes time; even strong BEV sales take years to reshape workshops.
- Independents depend on vehicles 4+ years old, delaying BEV impact.
- Warranty surges and early loyalty have softened near-term declines for franchised dealers.
Practical implications and what to watch
- Reallocate capacity toward accident repair; expand tire sales and related services.
- Intensify retention via prepaid service plans and targeted communications.
- Focus on the remaining ICE parc in the near term while preparing for aging BEV cohorts.
- Expect incremental changes now in most markets; larger shifts come as BEVs dominate newer vehicle cohorts and move to second/third owners.
- Monitor how networks adjust as regulatory timelines and consumer adoption align.
Overall, the “sword of Damocles” over aftersales has not fallen in most markets yet because BEVs remain underrepresented in service bays, but Norway’s experience shows how quickly workshop economics can pivot once BEVs dominate newer segments of the parc.
