Summary
A slim majority of UK used car dealers expect the 2026 Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate target to be met, yet many also foresee the need for policy adjustments as demand, pricing and infrastructure pressures persist. Startline Motor Finance’s latest Used Car Tracker highlights guarded confidence on near-term compliance but growing calls for government support, especially across the used EV market.
Key findings
- 57% of used car dealers expect the 2026 ZEV mandate to be achieved.
- 44% of respondents believe ministers will need to revise the mandate targets; 20% say remaining decade-long goals are unachievable.
- Net 70% call for more government support for new EV sales; net 74% call for support in the used market (net = balance of “more support” over “not”).
- Startline’s survey covered 303 consumers and 60 dealers; the 44% and 20% figures were not split by group in the summary.
Market pressures shaping sentiment
Dealers report a mixed picture in used EVs: stock often sells quickly, yet values remain depressed, squeezing margins and clouding residual value forecasts. This dynamic feeds back into new car pricing and finance, making competitive deals harder to structure and dampening buyer confidence due to depreciation fears.
Affordability, charging access and the health of the used market continue to shape outlooks for meeting annual ZEV quotas. These pressures inform the strong dealer preference for additional, targeted support.
Role of hybrids
- Net 44% of dealers see plug-in hybrids as an important transitional technology.
- Net 26% note the significance of manufacturers reintroducing hybrid and even petrol drivetrains alongside EV plans.
This points to a pragmatic, blended pathway to electrification that can ease range and charging concerns while sustaining momentum toward lower emissions.
Policy context and next steps
The ZEV mandate sets rising annual targets for zero-emission new car sales, with penalties and credit trading for compliance. Startline’s CEO Paul Burgess indicated that final figures for last year were pending but that the 2025 car target was likely missed by a few percentage points. He also noted the government intends to bring forward its review of the mandate from 2027 to this year—potentially reshaping targets, enforcement and credit mechanisms for the remainder of the decade.
What to watch
- Publication of 2025 ZEV mandate compliance figures.
- Government’s accelerated review and any revisions to targets or compliance rules.
- Used EV pricing and stock turn trends, and whether residuals stabilize.
- Any new incentives or support measures for both new and used EV markets, including charging investment.
Overall, the headline expectation that the 2026 target will be met masks significant unease about pace and sustainability. Dealers appear to be bracing for a tight balancing act between policy ambitions, consumer readiness and the economics of both new and used EVs.
