Key takeaways
- Cox Automotive forecasts a November U.S. new-vehicle sales decline of 8% year over year, to an estimated 1.27 million units.
- Seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) projected at 15.7 million, up from October’s 15.3 million but below last November’s 16.5 million.
- Cooling demand tied to the end of federal EV credits at September’s close, higher transaction prices, and tariffed inventory.
Market context
After a strong summer and early fall, Cox Automotive says buyers pulled forward purchases to capture incentives, especially federal EV and plug-in hybrid credits that ended in late September. With that urgency gone, demand softened even as overall inventory improved versus last year. Rising costs and rolled-back discounts have weighed on momentum, leaving November’s pace better than October but below last year’s elevated run rate.
Segment performance (YoY, November forecast)
- Mid-size cars: -17.2% (~60,000 units)
- Compact cars: -15.3% (~80,000 units)
- Compact SUVs: -6.8% (flat month over month)
- Full-size pickups: -1.6%
- Mid-size SUVs: -0.7%
- All other segments combined: -10.5%
EV market dynamics
Following a record third quarter for EVs, Cox reports demand fell sharply in October as federal credits expired and pricing remained elevated. The firm notes some shoppers paused purchases or shifted back to internal combustion models, pulling overall volumes lower into late year and altering the segment mix.
Pricing and affordability
Cox cites rising inventory costs and fewer discounts as drivers of higher transaction prices at the model level. At the same time, as EV and plug-in hybrid sales recede, average transaction prices have moved lower on mix, underscoring affordability tensions even as supply conditions improve.
Outlook
Cox expects broad-based but incremental weakness rather than a collapse, with most segments down year over year and the slower rhythm likely to persist through December and potentially into early next year. EV demand remains a swing factor; absent federal credits, automakers may adjust pricing or introduce new incentives to sustain momentum.
What to watch into December
- Whether OEMs boost incentives or cut prices to revive EV demand
- SAAR trajectory relative to last year’s elevated benchmarks
- Holiday promotions and their impact on SUVs and pickups versus car segments
- Further shifts in segment mix and average transaction prices
