Mid-December Read on Wholesale Used-Vehicle Pricing
The Manheim index’s mid-December uptick signals a market returning to more typical year-end patterns after earlier volatility. Seasonally adjusted values improved modestly, while raw auction prices eased slightly—an expected seasonal split that points to firmer underlying conditions.
Price Trends
- Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: 206.0, up 0.3% month over month and 0.6% year over year.
- Unadjusted wholesale prices: down 0.2% month over month, up 0.7% year over year.
- December’s adjusted gain is modestly stronger than the month’s typical seasonal flatness.
The gap between adjusted and unadjusted readings reflects normal calendar effects. The adjusted index smooths expected seasonal swings, while unadjusted prices often soften from November to December as sellers manage inventory and buyers stay selective.
Demand and Depreciation Signals
- Sales conversion: 59.1% in the first half of December, up six points from November and from the same period a year ago.
- MMR retention: 99.7%, higher than November and year-ago levels.
- MMR prices for three-year-old units: down 0.5% early in the month, consistent with slightly elevated seasonal depreciation.
Stronger conversion and higher retention indicate buyers were transacting near guide levels, a marker of market stability despite ongoing depreciation in three-year-old vehicles.
Segment and EV Dynamics
- Overall wholesale prices rose 0.6% year over year, led by luxury vehicles.
- EVs: Manheim’s EV index rose 2.1% year over year but slipped 0.5% month over month; non-EV values rose 0.6% year over year and 0.2% month over month.
- Trucks and compact cars posted the largest year-over-year declines, weighing on broader results.
EV pricing remains sensitive to incentive changes; the expiration of certain tax credits has softened month-to-month values, even as year-over-year levels remain higher.
Supply and Balance
- Wholesale days’ supply: 30.5 at November’s end, easing to 29.9 by December 15.
- Inventory growth slightly outpaced sales, but conditions stayed balanced for the season.
Measured remarketing and disciplined bidding helped absorb seasonal inventory without disrupting prices.
Why It Matters
The combination of an incremental rise in the adjusted index, healthier conversion and retention, and balanced supply suggests a stabilizing wholesale market. Luxury (with EV influence) supported year-over-year gains, while trucks and compacts lagged. The slight unadjusted price dip fits normal December inventory management rather than signaling fundamental weakness.
Outlook
Potential early-year supports include lower interest rates, improving credit access, and a stronger tax refund season. If realized, these could sustain steadier pricing and lift conversion and retention into the first quarter. Full December results and early 2026 auction activity will be the next key tests.
