U.S. Auto Sales: 2025 Finish and 2026 Outlook
U.S. new-vehicle sales are set to finish 2025 at 16.3 million (up 1.8% year over year), the strongest result since 2019. Cox Automotive expects a modest pullback in 2026 to 15.8 million (down 2.4%) amid slower economic growth, weaker job creation, higher tariffs and the loss of federal EV tax credits.
December 2025 Snapshot
- SAAR near 15.9 million (vs. 16.8 million a year ago; up from 15.6 million in November).
- Estimated volume: 1.46 million vehicles (down 3.5% year over year; up 12.7% month over month).
Key Drivers and Market Dynamics
- Policy shifts and tariffs created volatility; a strong stock market provided a “wealth effect” that supported demand.
- Consumers pulled forward purchases to avoid anticipated price increases tied to tariffs.
- EV and plug-in hybrid sales surged in early July after the Trump administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, as buyers moved to capture the expiring $7,500 EV tax credit before Sept. 30.
- Q3 2025 was a record for EV sales; demand cooled sharply in Q4 once credits ended and more tariffed, higher-priced inventory reached dealers.
- Affordability tightened late in the year, contributing to December’s year-over-year decline despite a sequential improvement from November.
Competitive Landscape
- General Motors poised to finish No. 1 for the fourth straight year; projected 2025 share: 17.3%, Q4 sales >685,000, full-year >2.8 million (up >5% vs. 2024), though Q4 momentum slowed.
- Toyota projected second; 2025 U.S. sales up 8.4%, share rising to 15.5% (from 14.5% in 2024).
- Top four (GM, Toyota, Ford, Hyundai) expanded collective share by 2.6 percentage points; most other automakers saw lower sales and share.
What to Expect in 2026
- Sales forecast: 15.8 million as GDP growth slows, hiring eases, and EV tax credits remain absent.
- Broader softening across key industry metrics after 2025 outperformance.
Methodology Note
- Cox’s 2025 SAAR estimate: 16.2 million; Kelley Blue Book’s full-year volume count: 16.3 million (includes additional retail heavy trucks).
- Differences stem from SAAR calculations versus total volume counting methods.
Bottom Line
Strong early-year demand and a record EV Q3 lifted 2025 to the best finish since 2019, but a weaker Q4 underscores mounting headwinds. Entering 2026, Cox Automotive anticipates a measured reset as macro cooling and policy shifts temper demand.
