Overview
TransUnion projects a slower pace for U.S. consumer credit in 2026, with credit card balances expected to grow 2.3% to $1.18 trillion—the slowest annual increase in more than a decade outside the pandemic—while serious card delinquencies remain essentially flat at 2.57%. The outlook reflects cautious consumer spending and tighter underwriting that moderate growth but help stabilize performance.
Key 2026 projections
- Credit cards: Balances to $1.18T (+2.3% YoY from ~$1.16T in 2025); serious delinquencies (90+ DPD) at 2.57% (+1 bp).
- Auto loans: 60+ DPD delinquencies to 1.54%, extending a gradual five-year uptrend.
- Mortgages: Delinquencies to 1.65%, still low by historical standards.
- Unsecured personal loans: Delinquencies to 3.75%, with growth and performance settling into a more measured pace.
Context and drivers
- Balance growth cools from the post‑pandemic surge (cards +18.5% in 2022, +12.6% in 2023, mid‑single‑digit in 2024) as households curb spending and lenders maintain tighter standards.
- Baseline assumptions: inflation near 2.45%, unemployment around 4.5% by late 2026, and a potential Fed shift to lower rates that could ease borrowing costs.
- Stability in card performance attributed to disciplined household credit management and conservative lending practices.
Lender strategies
- Cautious expansion into higher‑risk segments paired with stricter account management to limit losses.
- Tactics include tighter credit line management, proactive outreach to at‑risk borrowers, and targeted line increases to profitable accounts.
Product‑level takeaways
- Credit cards: Entering a steadier period with slower balance growth and stable late‑stage delinquencies; still sensitive to labor market shifts and price pressures.
- Auto: Mild delinquency rise amid affordability pressures (vehicle prices, insurance, maintenance); risk controls likely to remain even if acceptance improves.
- Mortgage: Slight softening from exceptionally strong performance; large cohort insulated by low fixed rates and accumulated equity; unemployment remains the swing factor.
- Personal loans: Elevated but manageable risk under tighter underwriting after rapid post‑pandemic growth.
Implications
- For consumers: Most borrowers are keeping up with payments despite tight budgets; any rate relief could help variable‑rate products.
- For lenders and dealers: Guarded expansion with a focus on performance and affordability; stable but cautious environment favors disciplined growth.
Bottom line
TransUnion’s 2026 outlook points to a resilient, restrained consumer credit market: slower card balance growth, steady serious card delinquencies, and mild upticks in late payments elsewhere. Outcomes hinge on inflation, interest rates, and employment, but the baseline suggests incremental change rather than sharp swings.
