November 2025 highlights
- Seasonally adjusted Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: 205.4 (+1.3% MoM), roughly flat year over year.
- Non-adjusted wholesale prices: -0.3% MoM, flat year over year.
- Three-year-old MMR: -1.9% MoM; MMR retention: 98.9%.
- Sales conversion: 57.2% (up 2.9 pp MoM; up 5.2 pp vs. recent three-year average).
- EV Index: +2.3% MoM, +6.1% YoY; Non-EV Index: +1.3% MoM, -0.1% YoY.
- Wholesale days’ supply: 30.1 days (up 2.2 days MoM; up 1.3 days YoY).
- Rental channel prices: -4.3% MoM; average mileage down 9.1% YoY.
Prices and seasonality
The seasonally adjusted index rose against the long-run average November decline of 0.6%, while unadjusted values slipped modestly and stayed in line with typical seasonal patterns. Cox Automotive’s Jeremy Robb cited October softness followed by November firming, improving retail sales, and the end of the federal government shutdown, with lower APRs supporting demand.
Depreciation and guide dynamics
Values for three-year-old vehicles fell 1.9% in November, slightly steeper than the usual 1.7% drop, with pressure easing late in the month. MMR retention averaged 98.9%, down 0.1 percentage point from October and 50 basis points year over year.
Demand indicators
Sales conversion reached 57.2%, signaling modestly stronger late-fall demand versus the most recent three-year average. Robb said depreciation is trending back toward normal levels, with values slightly higher than usual.
Segment and powertrain mix
Overall market prices were flat year over year. Luxury vehicles led gains while compact cars saw the steepest declines. Manheim said luxury strength has persisted for months and that the segment is more influenced by higher EV prices. The company’s indexes showed a widening gap: the Electric Vehicle Index rose 2.3% month over month and 6.1% year over year, while the Non-EV Index rose 1.3% month over month and slipped 0.1% year over year.
Manheim attributed part of the shift to changes in federal incentives. With certain EV incentives expiring and the leasing loophole removed, it said pricing dynamics shifted; retail prices for many new and used EVs effectively moved higher when incentives fell away, pressuring dealers to seek lower acquisition prices to keep demand intact.
Supply conditions
Wholesale days’ supply ended November at 30.1, up from October and slightly above last year. Pre-pandemic norms averaged about 32 days at November month-end. Manheim said supply rose through the month as holidays tempered buying activity.
Rental channel
Wholesale prices in the rental channel fell 4.3% month over month. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, rental values declined 3.3% year over year, while average mileage on rental units dropped 9.1% year over year.
Methodology and release cadence
The index, which adjusts for mix, mileage, and seasonality, was rebased in 2023 to a January 1997 baseline of 100 without altering percentage changes since January 2015. Manheim publishes the official index on the fifth business day each month and offers a mid-month figure as a checkpoint, cautioning against treating it as a flash estimate.
Outlook
With seasonality reasserting in 2025, November’s adjusted uptick and above-average conversion suggest some year-end firming. Robb pointed to lower borrowing costs and expected boosts to take-home pay from lower federal withholding in January as potential tailwinds into early 2026.
