Summary
Wholesale used-vehicle values are holding firmer than seasonal norms heading into year-end. The Manheim index ticked higher in mid-November as dealer engagement improved, loan rates eased slightly, and clean-condition units continued to command strong money. Supply remains tighter than typical for November, supporting steadier pricing.
Key metrics (mid-November)
- Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: 205.0 (+1.1% m/m; -0.2% y/y vs same period). Seasonal norm would be about a -0.6% decline.
- Unadjusted wholesale prices: -0.5% m/m; roughly flat y/y.
- MMR for 3-year-old vehicles: -1.0% m/m.
- Average retention: 99.1%.
- Sales conversion: 56.5% (higher buyer engagement, tighter floors).
- Wholesale days’ supply: 27–28 days, below typical November levels.
- Auto loan rates: down about 30 bps from October for both new and used.
What’s driving the trend
After elevated depreciation in October, early November brought moderation as borrowing costs edged down and retail pace improved. Capital costs are still high by pre-pandemic standards, pushing dealers toward selective buying, especially clean, well-equipped units with strong turn potential. Lower-than-normal supply and improving conversion are offsetting usual late-fall softness.
Segment dynamics
The market remains uneven by vehicle type and condition. Compact and midsize sedans show relative softness, creating buying opportunities for disciplined dealers who manage reconditioning and price to local demand. With sub-30-day supply at many auctions and below-average wholesale inventory overall, sharp-condition vehicles remain particularly competitive.
Dealer implications and actions
- Maintain price discipline; prioritize clean, well-equipped units with clear retail stories.
- Appraise with a 30–60 day outlook to align bids with expected near-term values.
- If under-supplied, consider building inventory in December ahead of a potentially earlier, tax-refund-supported “spring” bounce.
- Target softer segments (e.g., compact/midsize sedans) where turn and holding-cost controls support margin.
- Track weekly: conversion rates, days’ supply, and lending-rate moves to adjust buy lists quickly.
Near-term outlook
No broad-based run-up is expected “right now,” but depreciation often flattens in December and values can rise in early January. If tax refunds hit sooner or stronger, the seasonal bounce could arrive early, raising acquisition costs for dealers who enter January under-stocked.
