December 2025 Used-Vehicle Retail Snapshot
Retail sales of used vehicles rose in December, defying the typical year-end slowdown and capping a stronger-than-expected 2025 for the segment, according to Cox Automotive. The analysis spans franchised and independent dealers and points to steady consumer demand despite late-year economic headwinds.
Key December Results
- 1.34 million used vehicles sold at retail, up 3% year over year and 2% from November (vAuto Live Market View).
- Days’ supply: 49, one day higher than a year ago and one day lower than November, indicating tight but manageable inventory.
- December’s growth contrasts with the usual seasonal slowdown, suggesting efficient inventory turns to close 2025.
Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) Performance
- December CPO sales estimated at 220,803, up 1.7% year over year and 7.9% from November.
- Full-year 2025 CPO sales reached 2.61 million, a 2.1% increase from 2024, roughly in line with prior expectations.
2026 Outlook
- Retail used-vehicle sales forecast: 20.3 million, a 0.7% decline from 2025.
- CPO sales expected to ease slightly, rounding to ~2.6 million.
- Constraints: reduced new-vehicle production in recent years and fewer early-year lease maturities, with lease returns projected to increase later in 2026.
- Potential Q1 bright spot if tax refunds are larger than expected, supporting stronger early-year sales.
Market Context and Inventory
Supply remained limited, with days’ supply essentially flat versus a year earlier, reinforcing that availability is not substantially looser than late 2024. Tight conditions can influence pricing and turn rates, even as December momentum outpaced typical seasonal patterns.
Methodology and Data Notes
- Retail used-vehicle estimates are based on vAuto Live Market View data for the most recent 30-day period to align with monthly inventory reporting.
- Historical figures were revised to a comparable 30-day basis, improving month-to-month consistency.
- Data affected by the 2024 CDK outage has been normalized for comparability.
- Full-year totals are finalized later using registrations and other sources, which can adjust the picture once complete.
Implications for Dealers
- Plan for potential Q1 demand uplift tied to tax refunds, particularly in entry-level segments.
- Expect a competitive sourcing environment through 2026 amid constrained retail and wholesale supply.
